On the one hand, the steps taken for negotiations, on the other hand, the armament on both fronts, have made the process over Ukraine incomprehensible. It has reached the point where the world is debating whether there will be a war between Ukraine and Russia.
And what does reality say?
The truth is that neither the West nor Russia wants a serious armed conflict. However, the parties, who are extremely distrustful of each other, are trying their best to mobilize their forces in all areas.
Russia, seeking to capture strategic supporters of Ukraine in the region, intends to make Ukraine more dependent on its prestige and energy needs, rather than on its military power. Because Ukraine is not only Russia's most sensitive target, but also a well-known rival. There is an undeniable fact in the middle. Thus, in addition to being an aggressor, Russia is one step ahead of Ukraine in terms of power.
Russia's Minsk excuse aims to find the West guilty...
Russia has repeatedly stated that Kiev has not complied with the requirements of the Minsk agreements or has openly violated them. Moscow stressed that Ukraine continues the conflict in the eastern region by not complying with the agreement. This, according to the Kremlin, could force it to resort to military means. It also sounds like Russia is sending a message to the West to justify its military presence near the border. In other words, Russia is using the Minsk agreement as an excuse to make the West to appear as guilty.
As for the West, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said he believed Ukraine could move "consistently" if it had a special status over the Donbass region. The diplomat also stressed that steps towards this status should be taken in accordance with the Minsk agreements.
Instead of accusing him, the US official, sensing Russia's excuse, justified him and even released him as rule breaker. Blinken noted that Washington and Kiev agree on the implementation of the Minsk agreements, and they are the only way to peace in eastern Ukraine. He stressed that Kiev strictly adheres to the provisions of the Minsk agreements. The US official claimed that Russia had violated the rules since the very beginning.
Russia's inscrutable war plan ...
In fact, to comprehend Russia's purpose, it is enough to analyze the internal processes. As we have noted, the Kremlin, which is reluctant to engage in direct war, is trying to take advantage of the more cost-effective options. The most important of these is Russia's plan to use the power of separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. Although Russia itself is not at war, it is considering a plan to provoke the forces serving it, both to arm them and to throw them directly into the war.
Is it an appropriate time for war..?
Reliable sources say Russian-backed separatist groups in eastern Ukraine are waiting to take action. The statement came from separatist leader Denis Pushilin. He said large-scale operations could take place at any time and said he intended to turn to Moscow for support.
In addition, the head of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic Denis Pushilin added that a war with high losses is likely to take place. He also referred to Turkey, which fully supports Ukraine.
"If we are talking about digital warfare, air defence and the ability of the Ukrainian army to withstand Turkish-made drones, I must admit that there are huge gaps in armaments on our front," he said.
Thus, it is clear from Pushulin's views, who serves Moscow's interests, that Russia's action is a matter of the moment, but it is protracted because, in addition to the West, there is another fear for Russia - Turkiye.
Elnur Enveroglu
